Playing the odds

We all play the odds.  When we go to Vegas we give them our money and hope that we win but in reality we know the house has the odds in their favor but still yet, we play the odds in hopes of winning.   A friend of mine is going tonight to a bar to watch a baseball game where the odds are that the Dodgers will beat the Cubs.  Doesn’t mean it will for sure happen but odds are, based on past performance and a variety of other statistics, the Dodgers will win.  He is “playing the odds”.

As it would turn out, quite a few people are playing the odds and they don’t even realize it.  Every single person who is voting for McCain is playing the odds that he will live the entire time he is in office however odds are he won’t.

I did a little research if for no other reason than just to have some to say when people are going on and on about McCain’s age.  Truth is, I’m not a fan of either McCain or Obama but I found this bit of information quite interesting.

A white male born around the time John McCain was is expected to live on average to be about 66.5.  Obviously he could die before then or somewhat after but odds are, he will die at that age.  Any time he may live past the age of 66 and 1/2 is just a bonus.

It’s an odds thing.  Odds are he won’t live past the average.  Well he’s 72 years old so he’s lived well past the average.

So what are the odds exactly?

John McCain was born on August 29, 1936.

That makes him 72 years old.

The U.S. Census tells us that a white male born around his time should live to be around 66.5 years.  That means he has beat the odds for the last 5.5 years.

We are hoping that he’ll beat the odds for another 4 years despite putting him in an extremely stressful position as leader of the United States of America and all the pressures that come with such a title.

If I was a betting man, common sense would tell me to play with the odds and not against them.

Common sense would tell me that the odds are very much stacked against John McCain living much longer.

I mean for fuck sakes the man is already 72 years old.

Throw in the stresses of the campaign, the new job (if he wins) and his already known health conditions and you tell me who the fuck would take those odds?

Vote how you want.  I don’t want to say one candidate is better than the other.  But use common sense when you do.  Know the odds of winning and the likely hood of your candidate being able to see through his or her time in office.

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